Serial Interval and Generation Interval for Imported and Local Infectors, Respectively, Estimated Using Reported Contact-Tracing Data of COVID-19 in China

Serial Interval and Generation Interval for Imported and Local Infectors, Respectively, Estimated Using Reported Contact-Tracing Data of COVID-19 in China

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The emerging virus, COVID-19, has caused a massive outbreak worldwide.Based on the publicly available contact-tracing data, we identified 509 transmission chains from 20 provinces in China and estimated the serial interval (SI) and generation interval (GI) of COVID-19 in China.Inspired by different possible values hellfire sloe gin of the time-varying reproduction number for the imported cases and the local cases in China, we divided all transmission events into three subsets: imported (the zeroth generation) infecting 1st-generation locals, 1st-generation locals infecting 2nd-generation locals, and other transmissions among 2+.The corresponding SI (GI) is respectively denoted as SI10(GI10), SI21 (GI21), and SI3+2+(GI3+2+).

A Bayesian approach with doubly interval-censored likelihood is employed to fit the distribution function of the SI and GI.It was found that the estimated SI10=6.52 (95% CI:5.96-7.

13), SI21=6.01 (95%CI:5.44-6.64), SI3+2+=4.

39 (95% CI:3.74-5.15), and GI10=5.47 (95% click here CI:4.

57-6.45), GI21=5.01 (95% CI:3.58-7.

06), GI3+2+=4.25 (95% CI:2.82-6.23).

Thus, overall both SI and GI decrease when generation increases.